Big Changes Bring Bigger Opportunities - 2025 & beyond
thoughts on how the innovation economy might navigate another trump term
Hey all, happy December. It’s wild how fast this year has flown by. I haven’t written anything in a while, so I thought I’d share some early morning thoughts on how I think the innovation economy might shape up under a second Trump admin. Not super polished—this is just an exercise to get my ideas on paper—but figured I might as well post it for anyone interested. If you’ve got feedback, let me know! If not, hope you have a great read of this quick post.
Tech & Trump—Regulation, M&A, and the Wildcards
The tech world had a weirdly positive market reaction when Trump got elected the first time—NASDAQ hit an all-time high the day after. Was it optimism about deregulation or just a relief rally? Honestly, probably both. Fast forward to today, and Big Tech CEOs are already playing the game again, rushing to publicly congratulate him. It’s not surprising—they know how this works. Early praise = better chance at staying on the right side of tech policy. But let’s be real: public flattery doesn’t mean they’re fully on board. If Trump’s policies cross a line, we’ll see if these companies stick to their values or fold under pressure.
One under-discussed angle is how this might affect smaller players. Looser regulations on M&A could mean a wave of acquisitions. For early-stage founders, that might look like a win—quick exits and big checks. But if we’re not careful, it could turn the ecosystem into one where innovation gets absorbed before it has a chance to flourish. The more interesting play, to me, is whether some founders will start optimizing for longevity instead of acquisition. Can you build something that stays independent and scales? Like a MailChimp. That’s where real differentiation might lie.
And then there’s the H1-B visa issue. If and when Trump’s immigration policies tighten, it won’t become solely a talent problem—it’ll potentially manifest as a bottleneck on innovation itself. Just watch. It’s no secret that the U.S. tech industry thrives on diverse, global talent and without it, the pace of progress will probably slow dramatically, and we’d risk ceding even more ground to other countries that are more open to attracting top-tier talent. Founders and investors might need to think about how to build more distributed teams or invest in local talent development to hedge against this.
AI—Hands-Off or Draw the Line?
AI policy is a black box right now. Trump’s buddy and head of D.O.G.E (dpt of gov. efficiency) Elon Musk has sounded the alarm about AI risks for years, but it’s hard to know how much of that will translate into actual policy. If Trump goes all-in on deregulation, it might accelerate innovation—but at what cost? There’s a growing argument that regulating AI isn’t really about slowing it down, but rather it’s about managing the human impacts. Things like privacy, bias, misinformation— they aren’t fringe issues anymore. They’re here and boy are they messy.
One thought I’ve been kicking around: the companies that win in AI aren’t going to be the ones with the best models. They’ll be the ones that build trust. That could mean transparency, better alignment with customer values, or even self-regulation in the absence of government action. Startups that figure out how to do this could carve out a competitive edge that’s more durable than just having a better algorithm.
Crypto—The Comeback Kid?
Crypto’s back in the conversation, thanks in part to Trump’s public Bitcoin endorsement. Some folks are betting on Bitcoin hitting $100k next year (it hit $99K last week 👀) and even speculating about a national Bitcoin reserve. Wild. But let’s not forget how much trust the space has to rebuild after the FTX and Terra disasters. For me, the more interesting angle is how blockchain might complement AI—bringing transparency to systems that desperately need it. The interplay between these two tech waves could unlock some fascinating opportunities.
But here’s a contrarian thought to consider for my crypto folks: maybe the next wave of crypto innovation doesn’t come from the U.S. at all. As countries like Singapore and Switzerland build clearer regulatory frameworks, the center of gravity could shift. If U.S.-based founders want to compete, they’ll need to think globally from day one. That’s a harder path but maybe a more rewarding one in the long run.
Sustainability—What Happens When the Wind Changes?
Biden poured billions into clean energy, but Trump’s likely to roll that back. Does the momentum in EVs and renewables survive without federal support? EVs have come a long way—global sales are up, and costs are competitive with gas cars. That’s a win, but without continued investment in charging infrastructure, we might hit a wall. For founders in climate tech, this is a reminder to stay flexible. The funding and regulatory landscape could shift quickly, and building resilience into your model isn’t optional anymore—it’s necessary.
Here’s what excites me, though: the real opportunity might lie in technologies that can thrive even in a less supportive policy environment. Think distributed energy systems, microgrids, or energy-efficient software. These are areas where innovation could move the needle even if federal incentives dry up. It’s harder work, but the upside could be massive.
Entrepreneurship—Opportunity in Chaos
Here’s the thing about uncertainty: it’s uncomfortable, but it’s also where the best founders thrive. The question for founders isn’t whether the environment will be tough—we know it will be—but whether they can adapt faster than anyone else. This isn’t limited only to the VC-backed unicorns dominating TechCrunch headlines; it’s also about the middle market companies—the scrappy, durable companies in unsexy industries that create American jobs, build communities, and, frankly, keep the economy running.
One final thought: in times like these, it’s worth asking what kind of company you want to build. Are you playing the short game, optimizing for a quick exit? Or are you playing the long game, building something that can stand on its own even when the wind changes? Both paths can work, but only one of them creates something truly lasting.
Hope these thoughts resonate—or at least spark some ideas. Let me know what you think. Always open to feedback!